NFL Week 4 odds picks Chiefs end Lions u

[ymakerpi8d]

We'll get to the picks in a moment, but first, allow me a moment to dunk on myself. You remember where Brad Pitt, as A's general manager Billy Beane, is talking about how "there are rich teams and there are poor teams, then there's 50 feet of crap, and then there's us"? That's kinda like how my Samuel Girard Jersey weekly best bets have gone so far this season. There are good picks and there are bad picks, then there's 50 feet of crap, and then there are mine.But after I finally finished a week at .500, I've gotten closer to finding my footing. In Weeks 1 and 2, my five weekly best bets went 1-9 -- a record so bad, it sounds like I'm making it up. But I'm not. It's real. And it's terrible. But at the very least, I rebounded (by my standards, anyway) in Week 3 with a 2-2-1 record that represents my first .500 or better week of the season. The le son I've learned? Picking games in the early portion of the season, when teams are still searching for their identities and when it can be difficult to separate the frauds from the contenders, isn't easy -- that and I have no idea how I went 49-35-1 with my best bets last year.I hit .500 last week. I'm moving in the right direction. Now, it's time for my first winning week of the season. Onto the picks. Oh, and if you like seeing people dunk Teemu Selanne Kids Jersey on themselves and others, our daily NFL podcast where I join Will Brinson and the rest of the superfriends three times a week to talk about football and every so often, dunk on each other. It's just what superfriends do -- some more often than others.Last week: 2-2-1 This year: 3-11-1 1. -6.5 at The first three weeks of the season have produced eight undefeated teams and this matchup features two of them in the Chiefs and Lions, but only one of these unbeaten teams deserves to be treated as playoff-caliber team. It should come as absolutely no surprise to hear that that team is the 3-0 Chiefs and not the 2-0-1 Lions. This is the week the Lions come crashing back down to earth. To this point this season, the Chiefs have outscored their competition by 37 points even though they've played two of their games away from home and another against one of the best teams in the AFC -- in a game that saw the Chiefs race out to a 17-point halftime lead before the made things interesting late in the fourth quarter. By DVOA, Meanwhile, the Lions have outscored their competition by six points even though they've had the luxury of playing the , a team that is bumbling their way through yet another September, and a seriously undermanned team. By DVOA, . It's a road game for the Chiefs, but it's also a game that will be played indoors, where all of their speed can be unleashed. I just don't really see a way for the Lions to keep pace with the Chiefs, even if their defense appears to be much improved. At this point, -- on pace to become the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 6,000 yards Peter Forsberg Women Jersey in a single season -- should be regarded as unstoppable until further notice. The Lions have scored at least 26 points at home twice since the start of last season.The have scored at least 26 points in all 11 road games Mahomes has started. Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) Chiefs win big on the road as the Lions' descent toward mediocrity begins. 2. -2.5 at The Saints just went into Seattle and beat the with at quarterback, which was undoubtedly impre sive, but then again, the game started with a punt return for a touchdown and then midway through the second quarter, the Saints scored another touchdown on a fumble recovery. I don't think the Saints will get those kind of fluky plays for a second straight week. And I'm not that confident in Bridgewater against a team that has allowed only 14.7 points per game. I also think the Cowboys are one of the best teams in football. By DVOA, , behind only the Patriots. By point differential, they're second (plus-53), behind only the Patriots (plus-89). is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate. And he's going up against . Cowboys win by at least a field goal. 3. -7 vs. It's time to accept that the Colts are good with in large part because Bri sett, himself, is good. They might not be as good as they would've been with , but they're good enough to win the AFC South -- a division that remains wide open -- and they're good enough to hand the Raiders a huge lo s. Through three weeks, , and sixth in pa ser rating. Jacoby Bri sett became just the 3rd QB in franchise history with a 115+ pa ser rating in 2 of the first 3 weeks of a season.Others: Peyton Manning (2009, 2004) and Johnny Unitas (1964). NFL Research (@NFLResearch) Compare those numbers to : 17th in DYAR, 18th in DVOA, 21st in QBR, and 17th in pa ser rating. After a promising start to the season against the , Carr has morphed back into the quarterback he's mostly always been and the Raiders have proven they're still among the league's worst teams ( and 27th in point differential at negative-30). Plus, as Larry Hartstein of SportsLine notes, . And it's not like they've come close to covering. Hartstein noted that in those Paul Kariya Kids Jersey nine games, they've failed to cover, on average, by more than nine points per game.I'm picking yet another blowout. Colts win big as the Raiders' descent toward another high draft pick begins. 4. -2 vs. I loved the Vikings as big favorites over the Raiders last week because it's just what this team and this quarterback do. They beat up on bad football teams. I do not, however, love the Vikings against the Bears (in Chicago) because what this team and this quarterback don't do is beat up on good football teams. The Bears have been tough to back to this point in the season because of their comatose offense, but their offense woke up against a bad defense on Monday night, with completing 80.7 percent of his pa ses, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt, and throwing three touchdowns and one interception for a 116.5 pa ser rating. Was it perfect? Not even close. He demonstrated shaky accuracy with his ball placement on downfield pa ses and threw an awful pick in the red zone, but he made progre s after two dismal performances to begin the season. Here's what important, though: For as inconsistent as Trubisky Philipp Grubauer Kids Jersey has been, Cousins has been way too consistently awful against good teams for me to take the Vikings. Since *2000 btw. Not 2010. Long morning. Aaron Leming (@AaronLemingNFL) Last season, the Bears beat the Vikings in both of their meetings because the Vikings' offensive line couldn't keep Cousins upright. In their two matchups -- one of which came in a Week 17 game that was meaningle s to the Bears, but meant everything to a Vikings team that needed a win to make the playoffs -- the Vikings allowed six sacks and Cousins averaged just a smidge under 5 yards per pa s attempt while throwing three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bears covered the spread in both of those games. The key will be how the Bears' defense handles NFL rushing leader and t

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