The first part of the day consisted of the analysis of the economic situation carried out by Daniel Carrasco , director of Advanced Phone Number Economies at Banc Sabadell , and the strategic business vision derived from the bimonthly survey offered by Monitor Deloitte , through its director Pol Busquets .
«Europe continues thinking about what it wants to be»
"There are an increasing number of variables that affect the evolution of companies ," said Daniel Carrasco. The illustrative example that the analyst used could not be more useful: the coronavirus crisis that has put even the celebration of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in check.
His presentation was divided into three areas. Regarding the first of them, the global environment, in relation to the recent agreement between China and the US, called to reduce the scale of friction, and the electoral victory of Boris Johnson , which has consolidated the Brexit process . These two factors, although important, "do not eliminate uncertainty . " In the case of the agreement between the two superpowers, "it requires caution because it is a partial agreement and entails implementation risks ," in addition to the fact that after that agreement "a technological war between China and the US continues." . He recalled that the agreement "has stopped tensions due to the possible scale of tariffs, which is no small thing . " Regarding Brexit , he pointed out that “we are entering a transition period where a new relational framework must be established, which is not easy in just one year. There is still the risk of disorderly exit. If the transition period is not extended, it can be given another name to prolong it if there is no agreement .
«In 2020 we think that we will continue with low interest rates, which offers room for the ECB to maintain accommodative economic policy. With this environment, it is expected that a certain improvement in economic activity will be observed . However, "for it to have continuity, the big problem is that we live in a world subjected to disruptive phenomena such as the coronavirus, whose impact seems to be focused on the first quarter and especially on the Chinese economy . " And, in the midst of all this, "Europe continues to think about what it wants to be . "
As for Spain, in 2019, Carrasco described that “activity has recovered its pre-crisis peak. Although tourism has limped, it has been the eighth year of surplus. He added that "family debt has been below that of the euro zone and the rating agencies have continued to improve Spain's rating, to which is added the drop in the risk premium."
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Daniel Carrasco. | Photo: V. A, Jiménez
Looking ahead to 2020, the director of Advanced Economies at Banc Sabadell predicted that we will remain in an expansionary phase of growth, close to 2%, "if nothing breaks . " He added that “the evolution of the labor market will continue to be favorable. To create jobs, less economic growth is needed than before, with growth of 0.5% it can already be created , although "perhaps at a slower pace than in the first phase of expansion . "
Finally, regarding the implementation of the new Government, he indicated that “the labor market is going to be a great focus of attention, because despite the decline in unemployment it is still higher than the euro zone; Another example of dysfunctionality is the temporary rate. Regarding public accounts, the structural deficit continues to be one of the highest; When things go wrong, they could rise again. The reduction has been thanks to low interest rates, but not due to structural measures. But the deficit is not going to skyrocket despite the foreseeable lower fiscal rigor. Consolidation will be slow, but we are not going to see it explode ," he concluded.